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Thursday, March 17, 2011

Japan Stock Market Rebound


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Wyatt Investment ResearchDaily Profit

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

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Japan Stock Market Rebound

A Confident Fed

The Apple Complex

Fellow Investor,

 

Due to an e-mail server problem, Daily Profit from Wednesday, March 16, was not distributed.  Here it is now.

 

The Nikkei took back nearly 500 points in Wednesday trading. That's what happens a central bank pumps nearly $700 billion into the banking system, as the Bank of Japan has.

 

The rally for Japanese stocks is not an indication that the situation there is improving, or even stabilizing. The danger of radiation leaks has increased. Clouds of radioactive steam still rise into the air as workers struggle to keep spent nuclear fuel rods cool.

 

On top of that, freezing temperatures and snow are forecast for the quake-damaged areas.

 

*****China has been one of the leaders in bringing aid to Japan. This is significant as animosity toward lingers for Chinese who remember Japan's brutal occupation of China.

 

Despite the fact that Japan is China's biggest trade partner, the countries don't like each other much. But Chinese are reportedly impressed with the stoic way the Japanese have behaved in the wake of the disaster.

 

It's unfortunate that it often takes some kind of tragedy to recognize the humanity we all share. Better relation between the countries would be a good thing.

 

*****In addition to escalating violence in Libya, Bahrain is deteriorating into violence as well. Iran is starting to get very vocal about the situation in Bahrain, which is definitely not a good thing. Iran's government is a bunch of wingnuts and the last thing the volatile Middle East needs is Iran on the warpath.

 

*****It's remarkable to think of the events that have developed so far in 2011. If you had told me at the end of 2010 that Japan would be battling nuclear meltdown, Libya would be in civil war and Bahrain would be nearing that point in the first few months of 2011, I'd have said the Dow Industrials would be down 1,000 points at least.

 

But the fact is, investors are holding on to energy and industrial stocks. That's helping support the stock market.

 

Still, it's clear that investors are more nervous. Money is moving into Treasuries, despite the longer-term likelihood that interest rates are on the rise.

 

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*****Yesterday, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke said that the Fed is unlikely to expand its Treasury buying program, known as QE2. In fact, the Fed sounded downright optimistic on the U.S. economy and dropped language like "disappointingly slow" and "modest income growth" to describe the economic recovery.

 

Optimism from the Fed has been missing for most of this recovery. I continue to believe confidence form the Fed can be every bit as helpful as monetary stimulus.

 

But let's always remember that an economic system is based in confidence. While I'm not convinced that spending $900 billion on QE2 was necessary, I think there's no doubt the Fed's actions have restored some confidence in the economy. (Of course, it's probably also removed some confidence for the Fed and government.)

 

*****The headline Producer Price Index released this morning showed a 1.6% jump in prices at the wholesale level in February. That was double the gain in January.

 

But of course, the core number, which ignores food and energy prices, rose just 0.2%.

 

Now, I understand that higher prices for food and energy mean less money in our pockets for other things. Our spending power is reduced. But it's not accurate to call this inflation.

 

Can we say that food prices around the world are caused by US monetary policy? Not when you have floods and droughts impacting crop yields and creating shortages.

 

Sure, the Fed could raise interest rates to the point that growth is crushed and perhaps that would dampen demand for oil and gasoline. But that seems counter-productive, to say the least.

 

Oil prices are at least as reactive to demand from emerging markets as it is to U.S. demand. Maybe moreso. And the situation in the Middle East is not helping.

 

*****The S&P 500 dropped close to support at 1,250 yesterday and then rallied above the 1,280 support/resistance level. While it's tempting to give the "all clear" signal, I won't be surprised to see another test of 1,250 over the next week or so.

 

Keep an eye on the "Apple Complex" of tech stocks to gauge renewed bullishness from investors.

 

Until tomorrow,

 

Ian Wyatt
Editor
Daily Profit


 

 

 

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