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Monday, March 21, 2011

The Bullish Catalysts


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Monday, March 21, 2011

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The Bullish Catalysts

Banks, Chips and Cisco

1Q Earnings Cometh

Fellow Investor,

 

The S&P 500 is set to easily take out resistance at 1,280 today. And 1,301 may fall as well. The bullish bias is being pushed by some resolution to the uncertainty that's weighed on stocks for the last few weeks.

 

Japan is making progress in restoring power to its damaged nuclear reactors, lessening the odds that a full meltdown will occur. And a U.N. force is now enforcing a "no-fly" zone over Libya that will eventually lead to the downfall of Muammar Qaddafi.

 

It's not likely that oil production in Libya will resume anytime soon. And that will likely keep oil trading around the $100 a barrel. Ongoing protests in Yemen, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia will contribute. But let's not forget the  economic data we got last week.

 

New unemployment claims fell and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey posted a blowout number. Energy is always highly sensitive to economic data. Don't be fooled by the "high oil prices are bad for growth" talk. Oil prices are an indication of growth. And it will take significantly higher prices to derail the recovery.

 

Now, let's no go off the deep end here, either. Potential supply issues from the Middle East would not be bullish. And if oil prices spike due to supply issues, that would be bearish for stocks.

 

*****Readers should have a look at natural gas. It's been rallying, and the newfound concern about nuclear power could help (finally push the U.S. to seriously approach natural gas as an alternative/transition fuel.

 

I suggested natural gas company Sandridge (NYSE:SD) as an investment option in January a few weeks back when it was trading around $8 a share. The stock is currently over $10 and may still have some upside. Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) is less risky and may also have some upside.

 

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*****We should be watching the "Apple Complex" of stocks, too, especially the chip stocks. Supply disruptions at Japanese chip companies like Toshiba could prove beneficial to companies like Qualcomm (Nasdaq:QCOM).

 

My Top Stock Insights advisory service is also recommending a chip stock that has at least 20% upside in the near term, and may have as much as 50% to run over the next year. It currently trades with a P/E of around 5, which makes it ne of the cheapest chip stocks around. And rumor has it that this company may be getting increased orders from Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) as it struggles to replace inventory from Japanese suppliers for the iPad 2.

 

*****News about bank dividends may also help support the bullish swing for stocks. The Fed informed the banks how much they can increase dividends on Friday, March 18. We already heard from JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM).

 

Amazingly, Citi (NYSE:C) was allowed to start paying a one cent quarterly dividend, even though, without the benefit of loan loss reserves, it would be struggling to show a profit.

 

Interesting that there's been no word on the dividend from Bank of America (NYSE:BAC). That seems like bad news. The stock is currently around $14 a share. Let's not forget that tangible book value is approximately $12.60.

 

In addition, I fail to see how dividend payments will be anything but a drag on earnings. But the Fed (and the Treasury) clearly seems to favor bank valuations over an actually improving lending environment.

 

*****As I said earlier, the bullish bias has taken out resistance at 1,280. And now the S&P 500 is threatening to 1,301. After that, it's 1,335 says Jason Cimpl of TradeMaster Daily.

 

It seems like earnings season just ended, but it's nearly time for First Quarter earnings. Alcoa (NYSE:AA) kicks the proceeding off on April 11. There's no reason to think that earnings will suddenly make a u-turn and start looking weak. Another round of strong reports will send the S&P 500 higher.

 

For the last few quarters, we've seen some upside during the first few days of earnings. But both Intel (Nasdaq:INTC) and Cisco (Nasdaq:CSCO) have been wet blankets, sending stocks lower with weak numbers and tepid outlooks. Each time, the weakness from these stocks provided a buying opportunity for the broader market.

 

And speaking of Cisco, it just made another move away from growth stock status when it announced it would start paying a dividend. Cisco is a cash machine, and I'm sure shareholders are glad that they will start getting dividend payments.

 

But Cisco is also admitting that it doesn't see any opportunity for growth through acquisition. That will likely put a ceiling on the stock price as Cisco becomes an income stock instead of a growth stock.

 

Until tomorrow,

 

Ian Wyatt
Editor
Daily Profit


 

 

 

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