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Wednesday, April 6, 2011

What Happens When the Money is Gone


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Wyatt Investment ResearchDaily Profit

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

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Who's Going to Pay?  

What Happens When the Money is Gone

35% and 23% Gains

Fellow Investor,

 

The Federal government is on the verge of shutting down as politicians are unable to agree on budget cuts for 2011. Yes, 2011. It's April, and Congress has failed to approve a budget for the year.

 

I'm not pointing any fingers here. But there are a few things that make me wonder. 5% of the U.S. population controls nearly 64% of American wealth. And yet budget proposals would rather restructure Medicaid than raise taxes on the most wealthy.

 

And it's not like the super-wealthy are griping about taxes, either. Warren Buffett says the wealthy should pay more in taxes. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon say the "...well off should pay a lion's share..." of taxes.

 

I hear people complain constantly that the wealthy were relatively unscathed by the financial crisis. They were the biggest beneficiaries of bailouts and TARP money. And yet they are off-limits for austerity measures. So is the defense budget and corporate tax loopholes.

 

I know I'm probably opening a can of worms here, but I am frustrated by our politicians' inability to get to the heart of the matter concerning budget deficits.

 

                                       Special opportunity, article continues below.


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*****Is the rise in commodity prices solely based on demand? Or is "hot money" from government stimulus pushing prices higher? According to the Bank of Japan, it's both.

 

The Resource Prospector, Kevin McElroy alerted me to the results of the BOJ's study...

 

"While the strong increase in commodity prices has been driven by global economic growth propelled by emerging economies, speculative investment flows into commodity markets have amplified the intensity of the price surge... Furthermore, globally accommodative monetary conditions have played an important role in the surge in commodity prices, both by stimulating physical demand for commodities and driving more investment flows into financialized commodity markets."

 

It's not exactly shocking. When you flood the market with cheap liquidity, traders start looking for the best "carry trade." A carry trade simple means borrow cheap and invest for a higher rate of return.

 

One of the best carry trades was provided by Japan. Traders could borrow yen at essentially zero interest rate and buy Treasuries for a guaranteed profit.

 

Of course, carry trades the one that may be occurring in commodities are the very epitome of a bubble. It's a lot of money chasing a momentum asset. The real estate bubble was the same thing.

 

We've discussed what the end of QE2 might mean for stocks. But it could well be that commodities suffer the brunt of the loss of liquidity.

 

Of course, this would assume that central banks and the Fed cease and desist on all stimulus programs. That seems unlikely.

 

Eric Sprott, of Sprott Capital, thinks gold hits $2,000 this year and silver hits $50.

 

*****Jason Cimpl, of TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts, gave a little more color to his concern that new highs for stocks are setting up a Q1 earnings disappointment:

 

A break out this week would push short term, higher high momentum traders, into the market - and squeeze the bears one last time. Casual money would also be lured into the market since they missed most of the run-up last year and have also been on the sidelines for the past five earnings season rallies.

 

So now everyone with money is in the game, and they are all positioned in one direction, long.

 

Guidance from technology behemoths will be heavily weighed by analysts - and the tech companies better start showing better revenue growth. From the banks, analysts will be monitoring write downs as well as assessing the impact management believes the end of quantitative easing will have on the banks.

 

Jason continues to turn his accurate analysis into profits for   TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts members. They are currently sitting on gains of 35% and 23% since March 22.

 

Until tomorrow,

 

 

 

Ian Wyatt
Editor
Daily Profit


 

 

 

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